Social’s share of total digital ad spending will shrink every year through 2024 at an accelerated rate. We expected this trend to play out as other digital formats like connected TV (CTV) and retail media grew more rapidly than social, but it’s happening sooner and faster than we previously envisioned.

Digital ad spending represents nearly 72% of total media spend, compared to nearly 55% in 2019. Verna predicts that this shift to digital will continue to accelerate even more in the years to come, as digital media of all kinds ingrains itself further into consumers’ lives.

Growth is expected to accelerate until 2027, when US retail media ad spend is poised to reach $106.12 billion—more than a quarter (26.9%) of US digital ad spend. Listen to the full podcast. This was originally featured in the Retail Daily newsletter. For more retail insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.

We forecast that Walmart’s US net ad revenues will nearly triple between 2021 and 2024 to $4.52 billion, accounting for 8.2% share of US retail media digital ad spending. Walmart will also emerge as a more important player in the wider digital ad ecosystem by the end of 2024, moving ahead of Snap, Twitter, and Yahoo into the No. 8 position with 1.5% of total US digital ad spending.

Quiet layoffs or not, that doesn’t change the fact that Meta and Google won’t be able to replicate the growth they saw at the dawn of the pandemic—and why their share of digital ad spending in the US will drop below 50% next year.

Ad revenues for ByteDance’s social platforms TikTok and Douyin will increase 24.5% this year, pushing the company to a 5.8% share of worldwide digital ad spending—greater than LinkedIn, Snapchat, Twitter, and YouTube combined.

We predict US digital ad spend growth will outpace media ad spend growth overall. Retail media channels like Walmart and Instacart will see growth of over 40% this year. And TikTok should have another banner year for growth at 36.0%—if it can stay on regulators’ good side. This was originally featured in the eMarketer Daily newsletter.

Microsoft saw $12.23 billion in digital ad revenues last year, a massive figure that still only makes up about 2.2% of total digital ad spend worldwide, according to our forecast. In comparison, Google accounted for nearly 30% of total digital ad spend last year. By revamping Bing, Microsoft aims to regain relevance in search.

Beyond the chart: Even though the social ad market is picking back up, it will account for a smaller portion of digital ad spend this year (25.5%) than it did in 2022 (26.3%). Retail media and connected TV are increasing in digital ad spend share as social declines. More like this:. Meta’s AI-driven advertising system splits marketers.

But now Amazon is gaining on Meta’s share of digital ad spending (12.9% versus 19.5%, respectively, this year). By 2025, the overall market share gap between the two will be just 3.2 percentage points. Google is facing its slowest growth since our tracking began in 2009. The market leader is set to increase its net ad revenues by just 2.9% in 2023, reaching $71.50 billion.

Keeping tabs on shifting consumer habits is paramount for brands in Canada. In 2023, we expect more changes in how media is consumed and what advertisers can do to tap into these new channels.

From the early days of display ads to viewability standards for video, growth in digital ad spend has always been driven by the ability to reach specific audiences—and to measure the efficacy of the ads they see. Audio advertising, however, has been a different story. Until recently, podcasts accounted for a small fraction of overall digital ad spend.

Shift digital ad spend. As a result of Apple’s AppTrackingTransparency policy, a great deal of D2C brands moved digital ad spend away from Meta toward platforms like Google. But Google may not be the ultimate winner of that battle. As search behaviors change, brands will shift their dollars away from Google to Amazon and TikTok, where consumers are increasingly beginning their searches. 4.

Beyond the chart: A return to the skies and roads has bolstered the US travel industry’s digital ad spend, which will reach $5.23 billion this year and exceed pre-pandemic heights in 2023, per our forecast. The travel resurgence has also boosted the US digital out-of-home ad market, which will hit $2.64 billion and also surpass its 2019 level next year.

In 2022, the short-video app will rake in 2.4% of the country’s nearly $250 billion in digital ad spending—just 1 percentage point less than YouTube, and more than Snapchat and Twitter combined. Still, that’s a drop in the bucket compared with Google and Meta, which will claim 28.2% and 22.3% of the US digital ad market, respectively. Report: TikTok Commerce 2022.

Search ad spending is rising but losing share of total digital ad spending over time, as display formats, particularly video, attract more ad dollars. Because digital ad spending accounts for a larger piece of the total media pie each year, search’s share of total media spend continues to inch upward. Like other digital ad formats, search keeps exceeding our expectations.

The industry accounted for almost a quarter (24.9%) of all US digital ad spending in 2021, per our estimates. Last year, retail grew its ad spend the second fastest of all industries we measure, by 34.5%, behind only entertainment. This year, retail ad spending growth will be the fastest, at 20.2%. It’s also staking its claim in formats most important to Google.

That’s a lot of digital ad spend up for grabs with a lot of retailers vying for their piece of the pie. Dozens of retail media networks are beginning to scale. Amazon has driven much of retail media’s growth to date, but nearly every major retailer now has a retail media network—with several already generating hundreds of millions of dollars in high-margin revenue.

That said, elevated levels of digital ad spend across social media will continue to drive Instagram's ad revenues in a positive direction for Facebook at large. Instagram's rapid growth has been driven in large part by the versatility of both Instagram Stories and Instagram Feed as used by both advertisers directly and by influencers.

Retail media will also increase as a share of total US digital ad spend, hitting 19.3% in 2023.

The company will drive an incredible 77.7% of US retail media digital ad spend this year. With 41.0% of the country’s ecommerce sales, the highest traffic, and the most mature capabilities among retail media ad platforms, Amazon rules the retail media roost, and that should come as no surprise.

As subscription revenue increased between 2018 and 2021 as a share of total audio revenues, digital ad spending waned. Advertising will fall to 36.1% of total audio revenues in 2022, but rebound to 37.9% in 2025. While total US audio subscription revenues will remain relatively stable, the category remains competitive.

Brands’ spend on TikTok paid campaigns was two times as efficient (as measured by the percent contribution to incremental sales volume per million-dollar media spend) than total digital spend. TikTok paid campaigns also delivered a 1.6 times higher return on ad spend than total digital spend. Penn, however, advised marketers to take this data with a grain of salt.

While both Google and Meta’s share of US digital ad spend is shrinking, in part due to Apple’s AppTrackingTransparency (ATT), both companies will continue to make up more than 20% of US digital ad spend each through the end of our forecast in 2024. There’s an ad for that: Google and Meta both focused on ad revenues before moving into hardware.

However, CTV ad spend will continue to gain share of overall digital ad spending through 2025, passing 10% by 2024. Looking ahead: US CTV ad spending will more than double by 2025, soaring past $30 billion.